China(W,N)-Kadib duulaanka Ruushku ku qaaday waddanka jaarkiisa ee Ukraine, waxaa aad u faafay dareenka laga qabo in dowlaha China, ay jasiirada Taiwan ka qaado talaabo millateri oo la mid ah ta Ruushka, inkasta oo dowlada China ay sheegtay in Taiwan anay Ukraine ahayn.

China waa ka dhab in uu jasiirada Taiwan dib ugu soo celiyo dhulwaynaha China.

Diyaaradaha dagaalka ee Shiinaha ayaa hawada Taiwan si joogto ah u gala, iyagoo samaynaya kormeer isla-markaana, muujinaya ka go’naanshaha dowlada China, ee ah in Taiwan ay tahay qayb ka mid ah dhulwaynaha China. Madaxda China-na waxa ka go`an in Taiwan lagu soo celiyo gacanta Peijing, “Ma balan qaadi karno in aanaan isticmaali doonin awood ciidan” sida waxa yidhi madaxweyne Xi jinping.

China wuxuu Taiwan u arkaa qayb dhulkiisa ka mid ah oo aan cidna xidhiidh lasamaysan karin amar la’aanta Peijing, Wasiirka Arrimaha Dibedda China Wang Yi oo ka jawabayay socdaal uu wefti ka socda Czech Republic ku tagay Taipei ayaa yidhi “Taasi waa faragalin loo gaysanayo arrimaha gudaha ee China, China wuxuu uga jawaabi doonaa sida ugu haboon, adduunka waxa ka jira hal China oo kali ah Taiwan-na waa kamid”.

Taiwan laftarkeedu ma moogana suuragalnimada duulaan China ku qaado ciiddeeda, “Waxaan filayaa China wuxuu  isku ballaadhinaya xaga dibedda, khatartu waa mid dhaba, sidaa darteedna diyaar garowga Taiwan sidoo kale waa mid dhab ah” Wasiirka Arrimaha Dibadda Taiwan Joseph Wu ayaa sida yidhi.

James Fanell oo ah khabiir sirdoon oo Maraykan ah oo waraysi siiyay DW, ayaa ka digay in khilaafka Taipei iyo Beijing uu sii xumaan karo, “Sannadaha 2020 ilaa 2030, waxan filayaa in ay yihiin sannadaha uu ugu khatarta badnaan doono khilaafka China kala dhexeeya Taiwan fikrad ahaantayda”.

Dagaalka Ukraine miyuu China u horseedi doona in uu Taiwan weeraro?.

Inkasta, oo ayna cusbayn cabsida laga qabo in dowlada China ay xoog xukunkeeda ugu soo celiso jasiiradda Taiwan, haddana tuhunka ayaa sii xoogaystay kadib markii dowladda Ruushka oo China saaxiib dhow la ahi, ay duulaan ku qaaday waddanka dariska la ah ee Ukraine, isla markaana culimada siyaasadda ayaa isha ku haya, waxa uu China ka baran karo dagaalka Ukraine.

“Qalalaasaha Ukraine ka socdaa wuxuu China u horseedi doonaa  in uu dib iskugu noqdo oo uu fikiro intaanu talaabo qaadin” sida waxa yidhi Wen-Ti Sung oo ah bare culuumta Taiwan ka dhiga jaamacada Australian National University, sida Bloomberg qortay. Hadalka Ti Sung, ayuu macnihiisu yahay in duulaanka Ruushku aanu noqon sidii la filayay, lagana yaabo in Ruushku ka qoomamoodo.

Sida Bloomberg markale qortay, Winston Lord oo hore u soo noqday safiirka Maraykanka u jooga China ayaa yidhi “In aad weerar ku qaado masaafo dhan 100 mile, oo waliba ay suuragal tahay in Maraykanku soo faragaliyo waa qadiyad aad u khatar badan, qabsashada Taiwan waxay ka dhigantahay sidii eey baabuur eryanaya”.

Afhayeen u hadashay Wasaarada Arrimaha Dibadda ee China, ayaa lafteedu iska fogaysay is bar bar dhiga lagu sameeyay Taiwan iyo Ukraine, waxayna tidhi “Taiwan maaha Ukraine” laakiin, waxay ku hanjabtay in madaxbannaanida Taiwan ay meel xun ku dhamaan doonto.

Reer galbeed ku ma u hiilin doonaan Taiwan hadii China weeraro?

Kadib diidmada NATO ee ah in anay millateri ahaan u caawin doonin Ukraine, uma badna in reer galbeedku Taiwan ka difaaci doonaan China, marka laga yimaado in ay soo rogaan cunaqabatayn ama ay siiyaan hub sidii awalba ay u siin jireen, inkasta oo madaxweyne Biden uu balan qaaday  in ciidankiisu ay si toos ah u difaaci doonaan Taiwan haddii China soo weeraro.

Taiwan ayaa dhinaceeda ku niyadsan in Maraykanku garab istaagi doono “Waxaanu arragnaa in dowladda Maraykanku ay meel adag ka taagan tahay arrinta Taiwan si ka badan sidii hore, Maraykan ku wuxuu joogteeyay hubka uu ka iibiyo Taiwan, markasta oo aanu wax ka codsano si dhakhso ah ayay nooga aqbalaan” Wasiirka Arrimaha Dibadda Taiwan Joseph Wu, ayaa sida yidhi.

Douglas Herbert oo ah falnaqeeye ku takhasusay siyaasadda arrimaha dibedda, ayaa isagu aaminsan in ciidamada Maraykanku aanay marnaba ka dagaalami doonin ciidda Taiwan, isagoo waxba kama jiraan ku tilmaamay balan qaadka Biden.

“Tani waxay ka hor imanaysaa waxa ay ku dhisantahay siyaasadda arrimaha dibedda Maraykanka, laga soo bilaabo 1979 markaasi oo uu Maraykanku Taiwan kala noqday aqoonsiga, Maraykanku wuxuu saxeexay in uu Taiwan hub siiyo si ay isku difaacdo, laakiin marnaba ma saxeexin in uu isagu difaaco, sidoo kale Maraykanku wuxuu aqoonsanyahay siyaasadda loo yaqaano “Hal China”, ayuu yidhi Herbert.

Marka laga yimaado tafsiirka siyaasadeed ee Herbert, Maraykanku markasta wuxuu muujiyaa in uu Taiwan garab taagan yahay, marar badan oo laga baqay duulaan China ku soo qaado ayuu jasiiraddan u diray maraakiibta diyaaradaha xambaara si uu u muujiyo hiil kiisa, intii Trump joogay ilaa lix jeer ayay marakiibta dagaalka Maraykanku Taiwan tageen, sida Council Foreign Relations qortay..

Hub aad u casri ah ayuu markasta ka iibiyaa,  isla markaana ciidamo ayaa ka jooga, kuwaasi oo tiradooda la libin laabay sannadihii u danbeeyay sida VOA qortay. Ciidankan ayaa lagu macneeyay in ay ciidanka Taiwan ku tababaraan isticmaalka hubka casriga ah ee Maraykanka, iyo in ay China u muujinayaan in Maraykanku joogo ciidda Taiwan oo uu si dhaba u garab taagan yahay.

Taiwan maaha Ukraine

In China uu cudud millateri kula wareego jasiiradda Taiwan maaha mid sahlan marka la eego awoodda dhaqaale, istaratijiyadeed iyo ciidan ee Taiwan. Dhaqaale ahaan Taiwan waxay ka mid tahay 20 dal ee ugu dhaqaalaha xooggan caalamka inkasta oo aqoonsi la’aanta awgeed aan lagu soo darin, waana waddanka 7aad ee ugu dhaqaalaha wayn qaaradda Aasiya, waxayna ku jirtaa waddamada la yidhaa “Shabeelada Koonfurta Aasiya”.

Taiwan waa jasiirad, gabi ahaana waxaa ku wareegsan biyo, waxaana adkaan karta in ciidamo lug ah iyo tikniko ah si fudud lagu geeyo, isla markaana ciidamada Maraykanka ayaan ka fogayn, intaana waxa dheer ciidanka Taiwan oo ah mid ku qalabaysan hubka Maraykanka oo casri ah  muddo dheer-na diyaar garow ugu jiray sidii uu iskaga difaaci lahaa China.