Jagdish N. Sheth oo ah Professor ka dhiga Jamacada Emory University, ayaa sanadkii 2017 soo bandhigay warbixin uu ugu yeedhay “THE AFRICAN AWAKENING: WHEN WILL THE GIANT WAKE-UP?” Taasi Afka Somali ku noqonaysa “AFRIKA WAY TOOSAYSAA:  EE GOORMA AYUU CIMLAQANI TOOSAYAA?

Professor Jagdish waxuu yidhi su’aash ay tahay in aynu is waydiina waxay tahay “YAA TOOSIN DOONA CIMLAQANI?”.

Haddaba, war bixinta Professor Jagdish waxay ka kooban tahay laba qaybood. Qabta hore, waa xogta iyo xaqiiqda jirta ee doodisa ku tageerayo. Qaybta labadna waxay ka kooban tahay 10 qodab oo ah waxa Afrika ay tahay in ay samayso. Marka waxaan qoralkani doonaya in aan kaga hadlo qaybta hore (Part one) iyo sida dalalka Afrika uga faa’iid karan kobaca dhaqaale, iyo siday Somaliland uga qayb qaadan karto.

Qarnigii 1800 waxaa loo yaqaan Qarniga Yurub (ama European Century). Qarnigani waa wakhtiga ay dalalka Yurub qarada Afrika iyo calamka gumaysanayeen, khayradkooda dabicigana dalalkooda ku dhisanayeen.

Qarniga 1900 waxaa loo yaqaan Qarniga Maraykanka. Qarnigani waa markii dhaqaalaha dalalka Yurub ay ku burbureen dagaalada kowaad iyo labaad, Maraykankuna la wareegay awooda, noqdayna dalka ugu dhaqaalaha wayn calamka.

Halka qarniga 21 yahay qarniga Asiya iyo Afrika. Hafka hore ee qarniga 21-ka (sanadaha 2001 -2049) waa mid dalalka Asiya uu Shiinihu hormood u yahay. Japan, Koofurta Koriya, Indiya iyo dalalka Ashiya kalana ay qayb ka yihiin.

Professor Jagdish waxuu warbixitiisa ku doodaya in half-ka kale qarnigani 21-ka uu noqon doono qarniga Afrika.

Haddaba, Professor Jagdish ma ah nin iska hadlaya, ee si calmiyaysan ayuu u soo bandhigay xaqiiqda jirta ee qaarada u horseedaya in dhaqaalahoodu si xawliya ugu kabci doono. Waxaanu yidhi sida uu calamku uga yaabay kobaca dhaqaale ee Shiinaha ayay fajaciso ku noqon doonta kobaca dhaqaale ee qarada Afrika.

Professor Jagdish wuxuu soo bandhigay 4 qodab oo u samaxaya in dhaqalaha qarada Afrika kor u kaco:

1;Dhaqaalaha dabaqada dhexe ee qaarada Afrika oo kordhaya, kuwaasi oo awooda in ay iibsan karaan alaabooyin tayo leh (Branding consumption). Dhaqalaha-macmiisha wax iibsanaysa (ama Consumer Economy) ee qarada Afrika waxay noqonayaa mishiinka dhaqaale ee qarada.

2;Qaarada Afrika waxay qani ku tahay khayrad dabiiciga ah (National resource).

3;Dadka Afrikanku waa dad ganacsiga abuurida ku fiican (ama entrepreneurial ah). Ganacsiga abuurida kuma xidhna waxbarshada qofka, rag ama dumar. Qof aqoon waxbarasho lahayn, oo dumar ah ayaa ganacsi hana-qaada samayn karta.

4;Qarada Afrika waxay ka gudbaysaa dhaqalaha beeralayda (agrarian economy), waxaanay u gudbaysa dhaqaalaha warshadaha (industrial economy). Taasi oo u samaxaya qarada in ay warshadayso alaabteeda qaydhiin iyo khayradkeeda dabiiciga ah. Teeda kalana hay’adaha sida UN waxay qarada soo gaadhsiin doonay qarniga 21.

Professor Jagdish wuxuu soo bandhigay xogta dhaqaale ee Bangiga Calamka 2015-ka soo baxday:

1;GDP-da 54-ka wadan ee Afrika waxaa lagu qiyaasa $6 Trillion. Halka GDP-da dalalka Saxaraha Afrika ka hooseeyana ay u tahay $4 Trillion.

2;Isku celceliska kobaca dhaqaalaha qarada Afrika waa 4.6% (2007 – 2015). Mida kale, tobanka dalka ee ugu sareeya kobaca dhaqaalaha calamku, 6 ka midi waxay ku yaalan Afrika.  {Note: 2015 – 2017 kobaca dhaqaale dalka Maraykanku wuxuu ahaa: (1.0% – 2.2%); UK (2.3% – 1.7%); France (1.0% – 2.3%); China 6.9%.}

3;Tirada dadka qarada Afrika ku nool waxay kor u dhaafeen 1 Billion (hal Billion) qof.

4;Isku cel celiska hantida qofkii Afrikanku helo waa $4,870 Sanadkii (oo ku salaysan GDP-PPP qofkii).

Professor Jagdish wuxuu soo bandhigay xogta dhaqaale ee Bangiga Aduunka 2015 (ku salaysan GDP-PPP).:

New Measures of World Economies (2015) World Bank (by GDP-PPP)

2015 (USA dollars)            2017 (USA dollars) by World Fact

Shiinaha (China)                          $20 Trillion                $23.2 Trillion

Maraykanka (The USA)             $18 Trillion                $19.5 Trillion

Indiya                                    $8 Trillion                   $9.5 Trillion

Jaban (Japan)                     $5 Trillion                   $5.4 Trillion

Jermany (Germany)                   $4 Trillion                   $4.2 Trillion

Ruush-ka (Russia)                        $3.2 Trillion               $4.0 Trillion

Brasil                                     $3.2 Trillion.              $9.5 Trillion

France                                   $2.7 Trillion               $2.86 Trillion

Ingiriiska                     $2.7 Trillion               $2.93 Trillion

Haddii aad eegtid liiskani waxay qarada Afrika ka galaysa kalinta afarad. Halka dalalka saxaaraha Afrika ka hooseeya ka galayan kalinta shanad. Waxaad ogaata dhaqaalaha Afrika wali ma bilaabmin ama waa fadhi barad. Waxase la filayaa in GDP Afrika 2050 uu noqdo $29 Trillion dollar (USA), ama mudo ka yar 30 sano.

Professor Jagdish waxuu 2008 qoray boog uu ugu magac daray kobaca Chindia (ama Chindia Rising). Buugani uu kaga hadlayo samaynta kobaca dhaqaale ee Shiinaha iyo Indiya ku yeelan doono aduunka, iyo siyasada calamka (ama geopolitical).

Buugani waxa Professor-ku kaga hadlay awooda dalalka uu ugu yeedhay saddex geesoodka hore (old triad power) iyo kuwa cusub. Dalalka saddex geesoodka hore waxay ka kooban yihiin 15 dal ee kala ah: 1) CANADA & MARAYKANKA 2) GALBEEDKA YURUB iyo 3) JABAN oo dagalka labad ka dib kuu soo biirtay. Haddaba, Professor Jagdish waxuu soo bandhigay xaqiiqda dhaqaale ee saddex geesoodkani sanadkii 1987-kii:

45% Ganacsiga calamku waxuu ka dhexeeyay 15-kani dal.

70% GDP calamku ama dhaqaalaha calamka wuxuu iskugu ururay 15-kani dal. Dalalka kale calamku samayn wayn kumay lahayn. Haddaba, dadka ku nool dalalkani si xawliya ayay u gaboobayaan. Waxaanay xaqiiqsadeen in ayna kobac dhaqaale dalalkooduna aanu suurto gal ahayn.

Siyaasiyiinta dalalkani, si dalalkooda daganasho siyaasadeed u helaan, waxay isku dayaan siday u kobcin lahaayeen dhaqaalaha dalalkooda, si dadkooda shaqooyin ugu abuuran.

Note:

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) waa qiimaynta isku gaynta wax soo saarka iyo adeega dal wakhti cayiman (sanad oo kale).

GDP PPP (purchasing power parity) waa wax soo saarka guud oo dollar lagu badalay, laguna qiyaas qaadanayo awooda wax iibsi ee dal.

Awooda Maraykanku waxay xoogaysatay, markii dagaalkii labad lagu jabiyay Jaban iyo Jermany. Maraykanka waxuu hogaanka u qabtay calamka. Waxuu maalgaliyay, oo dib-u dhis ku sameeyay Jermalka iyo Jaban. Waxaa kale oo sameeyeen hay’da maamula dhaqaalaha calamka iyo nabadgalyada, sida IMF iyo Bangiga aduunka iyo Qaramada Midoobay (United Nations).

Haddaba, dadka dalalkani saddexda geesoodka ahi waa dad-cad oo ka soo jeeda qarada Yurub (Japan mooye). Sida daraadeed, waxay ahaayeen kuwa isku dhaqan ah, isku falsafad ah, is fahmaya, waxna wada aamin san. Tusaale ahaan, dalalkani waxaa ka hana qaaday habka dimuqradiyada, ganacsiga xorta ah, hanti-goosed ka (ama capitalism).

Lakiin, kobaca dhaqaale ee calamka ka jira waxuu abuuray saddex geesad cusub oo kala ah: 1) Shiinaha 2) Maraykanka iyo 3) Indiya.

Dalalkani waa quruumo kala duwan, kala falsafad ah, oon isku si u fakirin. Tusaale ahaan, dalka Shiinuhu waa hanti-wadaag (Communism) ku dhaqma hanti-goosad dawladu maamusho. India waa hanti-wadaag (Socialism) dimuqradiya oo mudooyinkani danbe casriyeen habkiisa dhaqaale, lakiin dadkiisu sas ka qaban habka hanti-goosadka iyo in bayac-mushtarigu maamulo kabayaasha dhaqaalaha waawayn. Halka dalka Maraykanka u yahay hanti-goosidka xag jira ah, oo aaminsan in dhaqaalaha bayac mushtariga maamulo oo kaliya shaqayn karo.

Haddaba, waxaa uu yidhi Professorku kobaca dhaqaale ee qarada Afriku waa mid GEED KA-GO’ANA. Waxaanay qaradu noqonaysaa mishiinka dhaqaale ee calamka.

Haddaba, haddii aan soo gunaado warsaxaafadeedka Professor Jagdish. Wax yaabaha u samaxaya in dhaqalaha qarada Afrika kor u kaco waxa kow ka ah; dadka (ama Human resource), qaarada Afrika waxa ku nool dad kor u dhaafay hal Billion, oo waliba dhalin yaro u badan (25%  ka yar yihiin 19 jir). Dabaqada dhexe ee qaaradu maalinba maalinta ka danbaysa wuu sii kordhayaa. Mida labaad, qaradu waxay leedahay Khayradka dabiiciga (Natural resources) oo ayna qaradaha kale calamku lahayn. Haday lahaan jireena ay isticmaaleen.

Xoogaga dhaqaale ee is haya ee Shiinaha, Indiya iyo Maraykanku waxay u kala dheeraynayaan, una kala dheeran doona siday qarada Afrika khayradkooda iyo siday macaamiisheeda wax uga iibin lahaayeen. Shiinaha si wayn ayuu u maal gashanaya qarada, waxanu doonayaa inuu hormood u noqdaan iskashiga kobaca dhaqaale ee qarada. Mudo dhawna waxaad arki doonta maal gashiga sharkadaha caalamka oo si xawliya ugu soo qul qulaya qaarada Afrika. Xaqiiqda jirtaa waxay tahay; sharkad kasta oo macaash dooni waxay maal-gashi ku samaysaa meesha uu dhaqaalaheedu kobcayo.

Haddaba, qaybo ka mida qaarada ayaa isku diyaarinaya siday uga faa’iidaysan lahaayeen dhaq-dhaqa dhaqaale ee socda. Kuwaso oo samaystay isbahaysi dhaqaale ooy ku midaysan yihiin. Waxaana ka mid ah:  ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) ooy ku midoobeen 15 wadan ee Galbeedka Afrika. SADC (Southern African Development Community) oo ku midoobeen 16 dal ee Koonfurta Afrika. EAC (East African Community) ooy ku bahooben 6 wadan ee Bariga Afrika ee loo yaqa ‘Great lake region’.

Dalkasta marka dhaqaalihiisu kobco, waxaa kordha dabaqadiisa dhexe, mushahar dadku rabana wuu kordhayaa. Taasina waa ta keentay in dhaqaalaha Maraykanka ee ku tiirsana warshadaha, uu isku badalo mid ku salaysan macaamiil wax kala iibsada (Consumer Economy).

Taasina waa ta keentay in ay warshadahii Maraykanku u wareegan dalka Shiinah, oo lahaa shaqaale badan oo mushahar jaban ku shaqaynaya. Taasina waxay dalka Shiinaha ka dhigtay dalka ugu wax soo saarka warshadaha badan.

Haddaba, dhaqaalaha dalka Shiinihu kor ayuu u socdaa. Waxaana badanaya dabaqada dhexe ee Shiinaha, musharharka dadka shiinuhu wuu kordhaay. Taasina waxay keentay in warshado badan ka guuran Shiinaha una guuraan dalalka Asiya iyo Afrika. Haddaba, qarada Afrika waxay kaga fiican dalalka Asiya, Afriki shaqaalo jaban oo kaliya ma leh ee waxay leedahay khayradkii iyo waliba macmiisha wax iibsanaysay. Taasina waa mida soo da dajinaysa kobaca dhaqaale ee qarada.

Mida kale, sanadkii 1979-kii waxuu dalka Shiinahu hirgaliyay siyaasada qoyska ee ahayd Hal-Ilmo qoyskii (ama One-child policy) tani ooy ku yareeyan kobaca dadka, oo si xawliya ku socday. Tani se waxay keentay in tirada dadkooda yar-yar (24 jir ka yar) iyo kuwooda waawayn (56 ka wayn) ay is lekadan. Taasina waxay u horseedaysa in dadkoodu hawl-gabka ahi badan doonan.

Teeda kale, dadka gaboobay, ee hawl-gabka ah ee qarada Yurub iyo dalka Jaban si xawliya ayay u socdaan. Tusaale, qarada Yururb dadkooda waawayn (56 jir waxii ka wayn) iyo dadkooda hawl-kar ahi (25 jir ilaa 54) way isku dhaw yihiin, ama 34%, iyo 41%, sida u kala horeeyan. Halka dalka Jaban ay dadka waawayn ka badan yihiin (ama 41.25% iyo 36.8%). Haddaba, dadku marka ay hawl gab noqdan, gunada yar ay qaatan wax badan kuma iibsan karaan. Teeda kalena, waxay u bahan yihiin cafimaad iyo daryeel joogta ah.

Halka qofku marka uu yar yahay wuu shaqysanayaa, cashuur ayuu bixinayaa, waxbuu iibsanayaa, qoys ayuu samaysanayaa. Marka dalalkani dhaqaalaha lahaa waxay waajiheen in dadkooda hawl-gabka ahi bataan. Taasina waxay keenaysaa in dhaqaluhu kobcin, dawladahoodana kharash badan kaga baxo daryeelkooda.

Haddaba, sharkadaha, iyo dawlaha hantida dadka hawl-gabka haya (ama Pension fund), lacagta ay hayaan waa lacag badan oo Trillion-o ah (Trillions of US dollars). Waxayna raban in ay hantidoodu u kobacdo, oy macash samayso, si ay si joogta ah u bixiyaan gunada iyo cafimaadka ay siiyan dadkooda hawl-gabka ah.

Sida daraadee, waxay maalgashigoodu yahay mid qorshe wakhti dheer ah, oo macaashkiisu badnayn, lakiin sanadkiin macaash yar-yar ku helan. Mida kale, hantida dadkani kuma khamaarayaan, oo ma galinayaan suuq yada samilayda ah calamiga ah ee baxa dagaya, sida Wall-street oo kale. Waxa la yidhi ‘biyo meel godan ayay isugu tagan’. Mar haddii dhaqaalaha qarada Afrika yahay mid si joogta ah u kobcaya, waxay sharkadahani hantidooda galin doonan qarada Afrika.

Haddaba, si qarada Afriki ugu faa’iidaysato maal gashigaasi, waa in ay dib habayn (reform) ku samayso habka dawladnimo iyo ka dhaqaale. Sida daraadee, dalalka Afrika waxay gali doonan tartan gudahooda ah, dalka sameeya hab dawladanimo oo si hufan (ama transparent) ah u shaqaya ayaa ka faa’iidi doona kobaca dhaqaale ee qaarada. Kuwa kalana silica iyo gajada ayay ku sii jiri doonan. Waayo cidna maal-galin mayso dal musuq-masiq iyo dawlad xumo ragaadisay.

Gaba gabadii, Somaliland waxay ku taala albaabka laga galayay qaarada. Marka haddii dib u hayn ku samayno habkeena dawladeed iyo keena dhaqaale, si uu ula hana qaado isbadalka dhaqaale ee qarada, waxaan qabaa in aynu noqon karno Singapore iyo Hon-Kong ta qarada. Haddaba, sababta aanu u samayn Forum-ka DAN QARAN (www.danqaran.org), waa siddii aynu u sixi lahayn habka dawladnimo, si aynu uga faa’iidaysano khayradka dalkeena iyo bogcada Istaraataji-ga ah (strategy) ee Illahay inaga abuuray.

LA SOCO QAYBTA-LABAD (PART TWO). Tobanka qodab ee Professorku yidhi Afriki u bahan tahay…

SOMALILAND HA NOOLATO !!!!

OMAR A. YOUSUF

Omaryousuf455@gmail.com

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