Waxa Isku Soo Ururiyey Saxafi  Maxamed Cirro.

HARGAYSA(W,N)-Warbixin laga soo saaray xog-ururin iyo daraasado laga sameeyey 125 dal oo intooda badan ku yaalaan Qaaradaha Afrika, Eeshiya, Koonfurta Ameerika iyo bariga Yurub, ayaa lagu sheegay in qiyaas ahaan 40% ay dalalka Adduunku la kulmi doonaan kacdoono dadweyne, mudaharaadyo waaweyn iyo qalalaase sababa dhibaatooyin kala duwan inta lagu jiro sannadkan 2020, kadib markii la ogaaday inay dalalkaas ka jiraan dhammaanba calaamadaha sababi kara xasilooni-daro (civil unrest indicators), iyadoo qiimaynta saadashan laga sameeyey laga reebay dalalka Galbeedka Yurub iyo Woqooyiga Ameerika.

Sida lagu sheegay warbixintan oo ay soo saartay shirkad la yidhaahdo Verisk Maplecroft oo xarunteedu tahay dalka Ingiriiska, taasoo ka shaqaysa inay tallooyin ka bixiso istaraatiijiyadda iyo khataraha adduunka habeenkii Jimcaha ee ay taariikhdu ahayd 17 January 2020, calaamadaha sababa kacdoonno dadweyne ayaa laga helay dalalka la saadaaliyey inay dhibaatooyin ka dhici doonaan (waa haddii Ilaahay uu sidaa qaddaro).

Haddaba, warbixintan oo aad u dheer, dhinacyo badana taabanaysa, waxa aan ka soo sameeyey qoraal guud-mar kooban ah, iyadoo aan ugu talogalay in faham guud uun laga qaato, balse faahfaahintooda aad kala socon karto lifaaqyada aan soo raaciyey ee ka hoose ku xusan, waxaana warbintan lagu bilaabay sidan; “Ugu yaraan rubuc (afar meelood, meel ahaan) ka mid ah dalalka Adduunka, ayaa soo arkay qalalaase, qulqulatooyin iyo kacdoono dadweyne oo ka socday sannadkii la soo dhaafay ee 2019-kii, iyadoo natiijooyinka ka soo baxay qiimaynta iyo daraasadaha la sameeyeyna ay saadaalinayso in ugu yaraan 75 waddan oo Adduunka ah ay la kulmaan rabshado baahsan iyo mudaharaadyo dadweyne oo ka qarxa inta lagu jiro sannadkan cusub ee 2020.”

Waxa ay warbixintu sheegtay in dalalka Hong Kong, Chile, Nigeriya, Suudaan, Hayti (Haiti) iyo Lubnaan ay ka mid yihiin dalal tiradoodu dhan tahay 47 waddan oo dhibaatooyin dadweyne iyo mudaharaadyo waaweyni ka dhaceen sanandkii 2019-kii, iyadoo Xarunta xogtan soo saartay ay ku dooday in tirada dalalka ay dhibaatooyinka la xidhiidha kacdoonnada dadweynuhu gaadhi doonto ilaa 75 dalka.

Sida ay Xaruntani sheegtay, tobanka dal ee la filayo inay halista ugu badan kala kulmaan kacdoonnada dadweyne inta lagu jiro sannadkan 2020 ay kala yihiin; dalalka Venesuela (Feenasuweela), Iran, Liibiya, Guinea (Gini), Nayheeriya (Nigeria), Pakistan, Bangladesh, Chile, Falastiin iyo Itoobiya, waxaanna la tilmaamay in dalalkaas ay ka jiraan calaamadaha muujiya inay sababi karaan kacdoon-dadweyne.

Meelaha kale ee la sheegay inay ka jiraan dhibaatooyin gunta hoose ka shuuqaya oo keeni kara mudaharaadyo xiliga ay doonaan qarxi kara, waxa ka mid ah dalalka Nayjeeriya (Nigeria), Lubnaan iyo Bolivia (Booliifiya), halka sidoo kale dalalka lagu calaamadiyey in khatarta kacdoono dadweyne oo dhacaa ay xoogan tahay ay ka mid yihiin Itoobiya, Hindiya, Pakistan iyo Zimbabwe, iyadoo ay warbixintu sheegtay in dalka Sudaan uu hoggaanka waddanka khatarta ugu saraysaa ay ku iman karto uu kala wareegay dalka Yemen oo markii hore kaalinta koowaad ku jiray.

Warbixinta saadaasha ah ee ay soo saartay shirkaddana indhaha ka lalisay dhibaatooyinka bulsho ee ka dhici kara dalalka Galbeedka Yurub iyo Woqooyiga Ameerika, maadaama la ogyahay dhibaatooyinka la xidhiidha arrimaha bulshada ee ka taagan ama hore uga soo dhacay qaar ka mid ah galbeedka Yurub iyo Woqooyiga Ameerika, balse sida muuqata waxa ay shirkaddani ka shaqaysaa ka-talo-bixinta qaababka lagu xalin karo dhibaatooyinka bulsho, sidaa darteedna waxa ay warbixintan loo fasiran karaa inay tahay mid aan siyaasad ahaan ka madaxbannaanayn dalalka xiligan isugu yeedha ‘Beesha Caalamka oo badankoodu yihiin Maraykanka iyo Galbeedka Yurub, sidaasna ay ku noqonayso mid dhinac ka raran oo aan la isku hallayn karin.

Waxa kaloo ay Xaruntan fadhigeedu yahay Ingiriisku sheegtay in waddanka Woqooyiga Kuuriya uu yahay dalka ugu khatarta badan ee la noqon karo qof mudaharaade ah.

“Macluumaadka xogaha ah ee ka soo baxay 125 waddan oo baadhis lagu sameeyey, ayaa iftiimiyey in 75 dal oo ka mid ah 125-ka waddan ee la baadhay ay ka jirto xaalad ka sii daraysa oo la xidhiidha dhinacyada xasiloonida iyo in mudaharaadyada ka dhici kara, taasoo macneedu yahay  40% oo ka mid ah guud ahaanba dalalka Adduunka ee tiradoodu dhan tahay 195-ka waddan ay la kulmi doonaan rabshado dadweyne, kacdoono iyo qalalaale halistoodu kala duwan tahay,” ayaa lagu yidhi warbixintan dabo-ka-wererka qabta, taasoo intaas ku dartay in dalalka Ukraine (Yugrayn), Guinea Bissau (Gini Bisaaw) iyo Tajikistan la saadaalinayo in degennaansho la’aantu ay si xooggan sare ugu sii kacdo, iyadoo laga cabsi qabo in sidoo kale dadka mudaharaadayaa ay la kulmaan dhibaatooyin kala duwan oo ka dhan xuquuqal-insaanka.

Saadaashan la sheegay inay ka soo baxday daraasado iyo xog-ururin la sameeyey, ayaa xustay in meelaha ugu badan ee la fili karo in Hay’adaha Ammaanku ay fal-celin xooggan kala hortagaan kacdoonnada dadweynaha ay ka mid yihiin dalalka Ruusha, Sucuudiga, Shiinaca, Turkiga, Thailand iyo Brazil inta lagu jiro lixda bilood ee ugu horeeya sannadkan 2020, kadib markii la ogaaday inay dalalkaas ka jiraan calaamado sababi kara kacdoonno iyo calaamado kale oo muujinaya in ciidanka ammaanku awood xooggan u isticmaali karo falalka noocaas ah.

Waxyaabaha ugu waaweyn ee sababi kara kacdoonnada dadweyne ka dhaca meelo badan oo dalalka Caalamka, waxa lagu sheegay inay ka mid yihiin baahiyaha ay dareemaan bulshooyinka nugul, kabista ay dowladuhu ku sameeyaan raashinka iyo shidaalka oo la jaro, sicir-bararka oo sare u sii kaca, khilaafyada siyaasadeed iyo khayraadka dabiiciga ah oo aan si caddaalad ah loo qaybin.

 By; Maxamed Cumar Cabdi (Cirro), Hargeysa, Somaliland.

. https://www.maplecroft.com/insights/analysis/47-countries-witness-surge-in-civil-unrest/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7895319/Nearly-40-countries-face-civil-unrest-2020-flashpoints-predicted-75-nations.html