Todobaadkii hore  waxaynu ka soo hadalney sababta uu madaxweyne Trump uga baxay heshiiska Paris ee aduunyadu isku raacday ee ahaa in cimilada sii kululaaneysa wax laga qabto iyo saameyn ta ay ku yeelan karto Mareykanka heshiiskaa uu ka baxay iyo wadamadii heshiiska saxeexay ba?

Maqaalkan maanta  waxaan ugu talo galay bal inaan wax ka ogaano cimilada aduunka ee sii kulullaaneysa (Global warming) ama is badalka cimilada.

Waxaynu ka jawaabi doonaa dhawr su’aalood oo kala ah:  Waa maxay cimilladda sii kulullaanaysaa ee la sheegayaa iyo ahmiyada ay u leedahay aduunka? Hadii ay jirto, maxaa u sabbaba iney cimilladu isbadasho ama sii kulullaato? Sidee wax looga qaban karaa?

Iyadoo cid walba garan karto macnaha uu sameyn karo heer-kulku, sida ilaa aan wada ognahay in biyuhu ku baylaan ama ku karkaraan 100c^o (boiling point),kuna fadhiistaan 0c^o (freezing point), ayaa caqliga aqoonta ku dhisani waxa uu fahmay in aduunyada oo heer-kulkeeda caadiga ah ee maantu uu yahay isku celcelis ahaan 15c^o, halkeeda ugu sareysaana 71c^o, ugu hooseysaana uu yahay -89c^o, ay hubaal tahay in aanay nololi suurto-gal noqon karin hadii heer-kulka aduunku kor u koco. Iyadoo taasi jirto ayaa waxa la xaqiiqsaday hadana in heer-kulka cimilada aduunku kor u sii kacayo. Taasina waa calaamad sheegaysa in xaga khatarta loo sii durkayo. Waxa kale oo la ogaaday in 100 kii sano ee qarnigii 1800 intii uu kordhay,  in leeg uu ku kordhay 9 sano gudahood oo 9 kii sano ee ugu dambeeyey ah sida ay xaqiijisay hay’adda NASA.  Ugu dambeysna waxa la isku raacay in aan shiki ku jirin in heer-kulka cimilada aduunku sii kululaanayo, hadii uu sidaa ku socdana la gaadhi karo heer dunida maantu rogmato –(waxa dhici kara hadii heerkul ku kor u sii koco, waxaan kaga hadli doonaa xaga dambe). Taa markii ay 98% seynisyahannadu isla garteen, waxa muhiim noqotay in la isweydiiyo maxaa keena in cimiladu kululaato sii looga hortago khatarteeda?

Markasta oo isbadal dhaco waxa ay caqliga saliimka ah iyo aqoontu ina farayaan inaan baadhno sababta ay wax isla badaleen. Qarnigii 19 aad, culimada Seynis ku waxay  xaqiiqsadeen in heer-kulka (temperature) aduunka ee heerkiisu kor u sii kacayo ee ka dhashay ‘Greenhouse Effect ay’ ay sabab u yihiin molecules ka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee CO_2, NO₂ iyo Methane ay ugu saameyta badanyihiin ee uu ka sameysan yahay atmosphere ka aduunkan ku gadaaman.  Xiligaas nimanka seynisyahaniinta ee arinkaa ka hadlayey waxa loo haystay niman waalwaalan ( The Carbon dioxide Greenhouse effect, Spencer, 2017).

Qarnigaa dhamaadkiisii, Svante Arrhenius waxa uu intaa ku daray in Warshadaha oo barigaa aad loogu faraxsanaa ay sababbi doonaan in heer-kulka aduunku kor u koco, laakiin isagana Seynisyahaniintii kale ayaa ku diiday. Waxa kadaba qaatay G.S. Callendar 1938 oo sheegay in hadba  xadiga CO₂ ee ay warshadahu ku sii daayaan hawada ay yihiin sababta kaliya ee keenta ‘greenhouse effect’ ee keena in cimiladu sii kululaato. Iyadoo aan dadka dunidan kunooli rumeysanin warkaas ayaa1950 waxa soo baxay cilmi-baadhayaal kuwaasoo isku raacay inay runtahay in cimiladu sii kululaanayso. Taas waxay dhiiri galisay in D.C. Keeling soo saaro hal-beeg lagu cabiro kor u kaca heerkulka. Arinku halkaa markuu marayo waxa bilaabmay in dad badan oo aqoonyahan ahi xiiseeyaan inay wax ka ogaadaan arinkaas muddada dooda ku soo jiray.Ugu dambeystiina waxa la daah-furay xaqiiqadii oo ah in ay runtahay waxay sheegayeen Culimadaas Seyniska ee aan kor ku soo xusnay (The Carbon dioxide Greenhouse effect, Spencer, 2017).

Hadaba baraktikal ahaan,  sidee ayey cimiladu u kululataa? Ma cadceedaa lafteedaa sii kululaata, mise waa si kale? Cadceeda aad aragtay kuleylkeedu xadiga ku soo gaadha inta uu leegyahay ee xataa hadii beed aad u dhigo ay bisleyneyso, dhulka waxay u jirtaa in lamid ah fogaanta dayaxu u jiro cadceeda oo ah 149.6 million km. Hadana dhulkeena iyo dayaxu isku heer-kul maaha (heerkulka ugu sareeya dhulka 71c^o, dayaxana 100c^o; ugu hooseeya dhulka waa -89c^o, dayaxana -170c^o; isku celcelis dhulka waa 15c^o, dayaxana  -18) sababtuna waxa weeyi falaadhaha kulluleylka cadceedu ku soo sii dayso dhulku dhamaantood ma wada gaadhaan, hadiise ay wada gaadhi lahaayeen nololi kama suurto gasheen dhulkeena. Si nololi uga suurto gasho dhulka aan ku noolnahay oo uu u helo kul ku filan waxa jira wax loo yaqaano Atmosphere oo ah dahaadh dhulka ku gadaaman oo ka celiya radiation ka falaadhaha cadceeda ee dhaadheer iyo wixii qurubyo (particles) waxyeelo leh, una sii daaya falaadhaha radiation ka cadceeda ee gaagaaban. Atmosphere ka waxa ku jira billions molecules gas ah oo ka kooban  Nitrogen (N₂) 78%, Oxygen (O₂) 21%, Argon (Ar) 1%; iyo  Carbon dioxide (CO₂) 0.038%_,  NO₂, Water Vapor (HO₂) 0 -4% iyo (Methane) CH₄  iyo ilaa sadex kale oo aan aad muhiim u ahayn laakiin wax-tar leh sida SO₂, Ozone (O₃) iyo [N, NO₂, N₂O]. Atmosphere kaasna hadii aanuu jiri lahayn dhulka aan ku noolnahay waxa uu noqon lahaa meel aan lagu noolaan karin (, Greenhouse Gases, USGS, 2011).

Molecules kani shaqada ilaahay u diray waxa weeyi inay sameyaan wax loo yaqaano ‘Radiation Equilibrium’ taasoo macnaheedu yahay in ay is leekeysiiyaan xadiga shucaaca ama tamarta kulul (Solar radiation) ka ee cadceeda ka imanaya ee ay u siideynayaan dhulka, iyo xadiga shucaaca (Long wave radiation) ka dhulku soo celinayo . Waxay u ogolaadaan xadi radiation ah oo iftiin ah oo go’an inuu dhaafo iyaga oo uu u gudbo dhulka. Marka uu dhulku soo celiyo mawjado radiation ah oo dhaadheer (Longlength wave radiation)  atmosphere ka ayey shaqadiisa tahay inuu nuugo (absorbtion) oo uu banaanka (space) u bixiyo (Greenhouse Gases, USGS, 2011), laakiin 10% ayaa u baxa ama u baxsada banaanka ka sareeya atmosphere, 90% ka kalena iyagaa qabta oo nuuga. Ka dib waxay tamarta (diirimaad) ka dhalata radiation kii ay nuugeen u kala diraan banaanka (Space) ka sareeya iyaga50%, dhulkana waxay dib ugu soo celiyaan 50% ka kale si ay u ilaaliyaan dheelitirka [radiation equilibrium] (The Carbon dioxide Greenhouse effect, Spencer, 2017). Waxa iyadna xusid mudan in malakuuliska curiyayaasha ugu firfircoonni ee shaqadan qabtaa ay yihiin kuwa xadiga ugu yar ku leh atmosphere ka sida (CO₂) 0.038%, (HO₂) 0 -4% iyo CH₄ waana kuwa absorb gareeya radiation ka dhulku soo siidaayo isla markaana dheeli tira Equalibrium radiation ka (IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physic).

Hadaba hadii dhulku uu sii daayo radiation dheeraad ah oo aan ahayn kii dabiiciga ahaa ee ka imanayey cadceeda, waxa kordhaya radiation ka tagaya dhulka ee u gudbaya atmosphere ka. Atmosphere kuna sidii shaqadiisu ahayd, waa uu nuugaa markaa ayuu haafna u dirayaa hawada sare (space) ka, half ka kalena dhulka ayuu ku soo celinayaa, taasina waxay keenaysaa in marwalba dhulka ay ku soo noqdaan haaf radiationkii dabiicaga ahaa ee uu atmosphere ka u diray oo lagu daray haaf radition kii dheeraadka ahaa ee dad-sameega ahaa (manmade) ee dhulku sii daayey, waxana afka qalaad lagu soo koobaa laba eray oo ah ‘Greenhouse effect’. Taasi waxay keentaa in heerkulka (temperature) dhulku kor u koco (Global Warming 101, Amanda, March 11 2016). Su’aasha hadaba meesha taala ayaa ah waa maxay, halkuu se ka yimaada radiation ka dad sameega ah ee dhulku ku sii daayo hawada ama atmosphere ka?’ Maxaase ka dhalan kara hadii ay sidaa ku sii socoto? Waxse malaga qaban karaa? Su’aalahan oo aan si faahfaahasan uga jawaabney waxaan ku gorfeyn doonaa qaybta 3aad ee maqaalkeenan.

W/Q:- Mr. Nasir Hassan Muhumed Timoweyne

Nation003@gmail.com 

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