Mise waa dal haysta wado cad oo u horseedi karta cadaalad, horumar iyo nabada warta? Mise waa….?

Sida qofka loogu qiimayo kartidiisa, aqoontiisa, iyo dacadnimadiisa. Ayaa dalalka la qiimeeya, iyada oo la eegayo:
I) Musuq Masaqa
Dawladina horumar ma gaadho haddii uu musuq maasuqu aafeeyo maamulkeeda dawladeed. Hadaba waxaa sanad kasta la soo sara liisto ay ku yaalan dalalka ugu musuqmasaqa badan iyo kuwa ugu musuq masaq yar. Sanadkani liista la soo saray waxaa kalinta kowada kuwada galay dalalka Somalia, Afganistan iyo Koonfurta Kuuriya oo helay 8/100 (boqolkiiba sideed). Saddexdan dal oo noqday dalalka ugu musuq maasaqa badan calanka. Halka saddexda wadan ee Denmark, Finland iyo New Zealand ay noqdeen kuwa ugu musuq masaq yar calamka oo haystan 90/100 (Boqolkiiba sagashan).
II) Fail State (Dawlada ku saqiday in ay noqdan dawlad)
Sida oo kale, ayaa waxa ay jarirada Foreign Policy (FP)sanad kasta ay soo sarta dawladaha saaqida ama halis ugu jira in ay saqidan(Fail States).Hadaba, marka ay jariiradani daraasada samanaysay waxa ayqiimaysaydalkasta halka uu ka tagan yahay todabadani qodab ee hoos ku yaal ee kala ah:

a) Demographic Presure (Cilmi baadhista bulshada, iyo humarkeeda).
b) Refuge/IDPS (Qaxootiga/dadka dalkooda ku ah qaxooti).
c) Human Flight (Dadka dalkooda ka tahriiba).
d) Uneven development (Horumar dalka een loo wada sinayn).
e) Economic Decline (Hoos u dhaca dhaqaal).
f) Delegitimization of the state (Qiimabeelka dalka).
g) Public Service (Hawlaha bulshada loo qabto).

Waxaana u soo baxay liistadadawlada ugu dhibcaha badan sanadka 2012, waana:

Somalia Failed State score = 114.9
Congo (DR) Failed State score = 111.2
Sudan Failed State score = 109.4
Chad Failed State score = 107.6
Zimbabwe Failed State score = 106.3
Afghanistan Failed State score = 106.0
Yemen Failed State score = 104.8
Iraq Failed State score = 104.3
Kenya Failed State score = 98.4
Ethiopia Failed State score = 97.9

Waxaa jirta in dalalka horumaray ee hantida leh, sida dalalka Maraykanka iyo Yurub, waxaa ay leeyihiin hab (ama system) ay ku qiimayaan dadkooda. Habkani ooy ku kala ogaadan cida la aamin karo iyo cida aan la aamin karin. Tusaale ahaan dalka Maraykanku qofkasta waxaa uu leeyahay saddexMagac, Number la yidhaa Social Security (oo ah sagal number) iyo FICO number oo ah hab lagu qiyaaso qofka aaminaadiisa. Hadaba, waxaa jira sharkad daraasad sameeya oo soo saraartanumberka FICO-kaga qofkasta ama dadka Maraykanka ku nool badan kooda.

Sharkadani waxaa ay daristaa sida u qofku u bixiyo biilashiisa ama inta goor ay la habsaamo biilasha uu bixiyo. Waxaa kale ooy eegta isku dheeli tirka daynta lagu leeyahayqofka iyo daynta loo ogalaan karo. Waxaa kale ooy darista tarikhda uu qofku bilaabay inuu biilal bixiyo ama amaaah qaato. Hadaba, marka ay sharkadani ay xisaabiso waxaasi oo dhan ayay soo sarta number la yidhaa FICO number ee qofka. Numberkani oo u dhexeeya 300 ilaa 850. Qofka uu FICO numberku ka hooseeyo 620, waxba laguma aamino,xataa gadhi ma kiraysan karo, haddii hooseeyo FICO numberkiisa. Markaa qofka uu aadka u hooseeyo FICO numberkiisu waa qof aan tirsanyn. Qofkasta oo dalkani Maraykankaka shaqaysta, oo doonaya inuu nolol fiican ku noolado waxaa uu iska ilaaliya inuu FICO numberkiisu hoos u dhaco. Sida daradeed ayuu qofku haddii uu wax amaahdo, uu iskaga bixiyaa, sidaa daradeed ayuu qofku biilasha sida kirad guriga , laydhka, telefoona iyo kuwa la mid ka ah uu isaga bixiyaa, oo aanu la habsamaynin.Dadka lacagta dawlada qaata ma laha FICO number, waayo iyaga ayaa la caawiya ee ma ah kuwo systemka ku jira.

Hadaba, ummada dhaqaalaha calamka gacanta ku haysa waa dadka sida ula dhaqma dadkooda. Marka ha ka falina in ay naxariis u galayaan dad ayna waxba ka dhaxayn oo dalal kale ku nool. Hana kafilin in ay hantidooda meesha doona iska galiyan iyaga oon darsin in ay hantida ay meesha galinaya ay ka soo baxayso, macaashna ka helayaan. Hadaba, waxaa ka jira hab lagu qiimeeyo dalalka iyo sharkada ay maal gashanayaan, oo la yidhaa Credit rating.

III) Credit rating (Qiimaynta dayn iska bixinta)
Credit rating waa hab (ama system)lagu qiimeeyo dalalka iyo sharkadaha calamka ee la aamini karo iyo kuwa aan la aamin karin.Sideedaba, dalna horumar ma gaadho, haddii dadka hogaaminayaa ayna fahmin habka caalamku u shaqeeyo. Dalalka horumaray badankoodu horumarka kuma ay gaadhin hantidooda oo kaliya, lakiin waxaa jira in ay heleen maal gashi ama amaah ay ku horumariyaan dalkooda. Dalalka calamku waxaa amaah ama maal gashi ka helaan sharkado iyo bangiyadawaawayn, markaasi ayay hirgalin karaan wadooyinka ama mashruucyada waawayn ay u baahan yihiin. Marka haddii aan dal la aamini karin in la maal gashadan ha ka yaabin, inuu horumar gaadho ha ka yaabin.
Hadaba, saddex sharkadood ee kala ahS&P Rating, Moody’s iyo Fitch waxa ay k amidyihiin sharkado qiimaya Credit rating dalalka iyo sharkado waawayn. Qiimaynta ay sameeyan saddexdani sharkadood waxa ka cawiyan sharkadaha ama Bangiyada maal gashanayain ay qiimayeen in dalkaasi ama sharkadasi u qalanto in la maal gashado iyo in kale.
Hadaba, waa kuwan dalalka ugu sareeya eela aamini karo ama la maal gashan karo (ama the least risk counties). Darajada ugu saraysa ee sharkadahani bixiyaanwaa AAA ama 100, halka dajada ugu hoosaysa ay tahay hal-xarf C ama C- oo ah darajada ugu hoosaysa. Dalalka haysta darajada ‘AAA’ ee seddexda sharkadeed isku raceen waxaa ka mida:

Liechtenstein Rating 100
Luxenbourg Rating 100
Switzerland Rating 99.46
Sweden Rating 98.21
Finland Rating 98.25
Singapore Rating 98.6
Germany Rating 98.47
Denmark Rating 98.38
Netherlands 98.27 Rating
Canada Rating 96.89

Wadamada ugu hooseeya, ee ay adagtahay in la maal gashado ama hanti la amaahiyana waxaa ka mida:

Kenya Rating 21.5
Jamaica Rating 25
Nigeria Rating 28.64
Rwanda Rating 30
Egypt (Masar) Rating 31.25
Senegal Rating 35

Hadaba, dalalka uu sareeyo liistada Credit rating-koodu waa dalal la aamini karo, cida maal gashanysa dalalkaasi waxaa ay helayaan kalsooni ay ku maal gashadan dalalkani. Wadamada ugu hooseeyo liistadaCredit rating-ku waa dalal aan la aamin karin, waayo ma laha dawlad cago ku tagan, waxbana kuma ah in ay dawladasi ay burburto, haddii ayna burburina waa dalal musuq masaqa iyo dawlad xumado ay ragaadisay. Sida aad liiska dalalka uu sareeyo Credit rating-koodu ka arkaysid kuma jiran wadamada waawayn, sida dalka Marakanka, China, Japan, Engiriiska iyo Ruushka . Halka dalka yar ee magalada kaliya ah ee Singapor, een haysan wax khayrad ahi uu ka midka yahay liiskaasi. Teeda kale Singapor ma ah dal dumuqradiya, waayo dimuqradiyadu ‘Guarantee’ uma ah dawlada wanaaga iyo musuq maasaq yari . Lakiin waxaa loo bahan yahay dawlada leh hab maamuloo hufan oo sees adag ku tagan. Halka dawlada dimuqradiyada ah ee Nigeria ee leh khayrad badani ay tahay dalalka caalamka aanu aamini karin.Dalka Taiwan (Rating 81.32 ama AA-) oo ah dal sideena aan ictiraaf caalamiya haysani ayaa Credit rating-kiisu ka fiican yahay dalka Koonfurta Kuuriya iyo dalal badan oo qarada Yurub ka mida. Teeda kale Taiwan waxaa ay ka mid tahay 20-ka wadan ee aduunka ugu dhaqalaha sareeya (ama GDP 918 Billion). Dhaqalaheedu waxaa uu inyar ka hooseeya dalka Sucuudiga (GDP 921 Billion) oo ah dalka calamka ugu saliida badan.

Hadaba, sida aad liiska ka arkaysid, waxaa jira in dalal u badan dalalka Africa in ayna ku jirin liiska, dalalkaasi waa kuwa laga aaminka baxay. Dalalkasi waxaa kamid ah Somalia, Afganistan iyo Koonfurta Kuuriya iyo qaar kale oo badan. Dalalkani waa kuwa ku saaqiday dawladnima (fail state-ka). Kuwaasi waa kuwa gargaarka dagdag ah u baahan. Dalalkaasi ma ah, dalal la maal gashado ama hanti laguamini karo. Haddii laga tagi wayo, waxaa wadamada maal gashada sharkadokoobanoo iyagu u badheedha in hantidooda khasaaran. Sharkadahani hanti iska galiyan dalalkaasi waa kuwo haddii ay faa’iida soo baxda badankeeda qaata, dalka ay maal gashanayaana wax faa’iida oo wayn kama helo.

Hadaba, sida dalalka horumaray ugu nool yihiin dadka dawladu lacag siiso ayaa waxaa jira dawlado loo arko in ay u baahan yihiin cawimo.Dalalkaasiwaa qaar marxalada abaar iyo dhibaatooyin dabaciya ku habsadeen. Kuwana waa kuwa iyagu isku keena dhibta oo maamul iyo dawlada xumada ay ku habsatay.Sababta uu calamku u gargaarayo dalalkani waa si ayna dhibta haysta dalalkaasi ayna calamka ugu soo gudbin. Dawladahasina ma ah kuwa laga filayo horumar, ee waa kuwa calamku u dawaro, si dadka ku nooli u dhiman, ama cuduro halis calamka ku ahi uga dilaacin.

Hadaba, ma ah in xukuumada Somaliland in ay caalamka ka sugan maal gashi ama in hanti la amaahiyo. Lakiin waa in aynu inagu isku tashano hantida yar een haysano nidaamino oon mashruucyada dalku u bahan yahay ee shaqooyin dadka u abuuraya hirgalino. Isla markana aynu ka hawl galno sidii aynu u dhisan lahayn hab dawladeed oo la aamini karo.

Hadaba, dadka Somaliland waa in ay iswaydiiyan labadan su’aalood:
1) Sidee ayay Somaliland u noqonlahayd Taiwan ama Singapor,oo ah dal magaalo kaliya ah oo hadana mudo gaaban ku noqotay dalalka calamku ugu fiican?
2) Teeda kalana, sidee ayaynu iska ilaalin lahan in aynu noqono dal sida Nigerya ooIllahay nimco iyo khayrad ku manaystay, ee hadana ah dal uu calamku ka aamin ka baxo, ee horumarkiisuna aadka u hooseeyo?

Haddii aan si kooban uga hadlo jawaabta labadani su’aalood . Waxaana qabaa sida kaliya ee Somaliland uga baxayso marxalada ay maanta ku jira, waa iyada oo dib isugu noqota oo:
A) Marka hore hirgalisa Road Map u gogal xaadhadalka wado inagu rida Cadalada, Dhaqaalaha, Dimuqradiyada iyo Nabdagalyada warta . Road Map-kani ooy soo diyaariyan dadka inoogu aqoonta, iyo waya aragnimada badan ee calamka ku kala filiqsan. Kuwaasi oo fahansan sida dawlad iyo maamul fiican loo dhiso.
B) Marka xiga, waa in la soo xuloGole Guurti oo ka kooban dadka inoogu aqoonta, iyo waya aragnimada badan. Golahani waa inuu ku yimada xulasho ay soo xushaan dad inoogu aqoon badani, oon ahayn oday Beeladyo, iyo siyaasi dan gaara wataa. Hawsha ugu wayn ee Golaha Guurtida qabanayaa waa in ay noqoto, sida Xukuumada ama Dawlada ugu ilaalin lahaayeen Dastuurka iyo Road Map-ka.

LA SOCO QORALKA DANBE EEN KAGA HADLI DOONO ROADMAP-KA IYO GOLAHA GUURTIDA…..

Somaliland ha noolato!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Omar Yousuf (Ururka Wadaniyiinta Somaliland (UWS))
Oakland, Ca